The big news yesterday on the NHL front was the announcement of rosters for the teams taking part in February’s 4 Nations Face-Off.
The inaugural tournament, which replaces the NHL’s All-Star Weekend festivities, which less people cared about, will feature the sport’s elite – led by names like Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby on the Canada team, Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, and the Tkachuk brothers, Matthew and Brady, on the United States, Rasmus Dahlin and Elias Pettersson on Sweden, and Patrik Laine and Juuse Saros on Finland.
NHL’s Best Talent Competing
On paper, the U.S. team looks the strongest, according to a lot of commentators.
Games will be played at the Bell Centre in Montreal and TD Garden in Boston. The tournament kicks off Feb. 12 in Montreal with Canada against Sweden. The doozy game will be Saturday night, also in Montreal, when the U.S. takes on Canada. Boston will host the tournament championship game Feb. 20.
We’re old enough to remember the hatred and intensity that these types of tournaments can generate. The Canada-U.S. game of the World Cup of Hockey in 1996 was a round-robin match in Philadelphia with memorable fights between Matthew and Brady’s father Keith, and Claude Lemieux of Canada, and current Team U.S.A. general Bill Guerin and Keith Primeau – 20 seconds into the game.
NHL Banking On New Format
The Canadian brand of hockey at the time meant running over people. The Americans were out to make a statement they were having none of it.
Will the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament feature that level of hatred between the two countries? Will Sam Bennett of Canada put his Florida Panthers teammates Matthew Tkachuk of Team USA through the boards if given the opportunity?
There is going to be a lot of energy, especially around that Saturday night game in Montreal.
But will bettor’s give a whiff?
Hockey Well Down In Betting Rankings
Talking to traders, NHL betting consistently ranks 4th among all the major sports (NFL, NBA, MLB).
“The NHL is the least bet of the major sports,” BetMGM’s John Ewing confirmed to Casino.org. “A lot of interest (in the 4 Nations tournament) will be driven by how well the USA performs.”
Said Glen Hyslop, a trader with BetVictor: “Looking at the numbers for the past two years and focusing on business on the NBA, NHL, NFL and MLB, the NHL has accounted for 15% of the business and is the least popular of the four U.S. sports. NBA is the most popular then the NFL followed by MLB and then the NHL.
Similar to World Baseball Classic?
“It’s hard to say if we will generate any interest in the 4 Nations Face-Off. We will put markets up and see what we take. We are growing in Canada, and all these sports have seen an increase of business so hockey could grow even more as the business grows in the area.”
PointsBet only does business in Canada and Australia after selling their U.S. operation to Fanatics, so they have more on the line compared to those with businesses in the U.S., and with Canada being a hockey-mad nation.
According to the trading desk there:
Interestingly enough, NHL comes in last of the big 4 professional sports at about half the turnover as baseball and football, 1/5 the turnover as basketball. This is likely because of the betting mechanics, not the sport’s overall popularity. NHL is more popular than MLB in Canada, but it is not as good of a sport to bet on.
“In terms of the 4 Nations Face-Off, it’s hard to guess the interest right now with it being months away, but we think it could see similar betting interest to an event like the World Baseball Classic.”
888: Looking for 4 Times the Turnover
Lines are up already: BetMGM has Canada at +135 to win the tournament, followed by the U.S. at +175, Sweden at +500, then Finland at +700.
“It’s still very early days, but I’d estimate a significant upgrade in interest compared to the usual All-Star Festivities,” said Ben Rhodes, U.S. Sports Manager, Trading, for Evoke (888, William Hill). “Overall the players seem to be up for it, so I’d expect fully competitive matches throughout. We’ll be hoping for upwards of 4x the turnover of a regular NHL game, with even more for the championship game.”
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