- Blue Jays forced to start bullpen pitchers for Game 4 tonight
- Yankees coming off huge Game 3 lift off dramatic Judge homerun
- Yankees betting favourite for Game 4 with rookie Schlittler coming off dominate wildcard performance
It was a head scratcher, when the Blue Jays submitted their 26-man roster for the American League Division Series against the Yankees – three starting pitchers for a best-of-five-series. That included leaving one surefire Hall of Famer – Max Scherzer – and three other accomplished starters – Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Bowden Francis – off the roster.
Judge Comes Alive
So the Jays loaded up instead with 10 relievers, including four southpaw bullpen pitchers. Maybe that’s what the statisticians and analytics brainiacs clearly told the coaches they needed to do, how best to deal with a left-handed-laden Yankees hitting lineup, while trying to build a scenario where the team could pitch around MVP candidate Aaron Judge when need be.
How’d that work out? Judge is the best hitter in the world and fisted a 100-mph fastball a good three baseballs inside the plate 400 feet to deep left, ringing it off the top of the foul pole last night, to tie Game 3 in the fourth inning 6-6. That sent 47,399 Yankee Stadium fans into a lather, neutering any confidence advantage the Jays had built, mostly off a Vlad Guerrero Jr. first inning home run, and a 6-1 lead in a potentially series-clinching game, changing the course of the game and the series.
And tonight in Game 4 you are going have four very good Blue Jays’ starters watching from the bench.
Jays Underdogs Tonight
The Jays also had holes punched in their vaunted defence last night, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa booting a ground ball to second in the first, and a wind-blown fly ball drop by third baseman Addison Barger in that fourth inning, both of which handed outs to the powerful Yankees, who would score on both errors.
As Jeff Passan wrote on ESPN today, Judge had never hit a pitch 100 mph or faster for a home run.
Jays Go With Bullpen Starters
That leaves the Jays in the unenviable situation tonight of having to roll out a staff of bullpen pitchers for Game 4, still up 2-1 in the series, with all the momentum now on the Yankees’ side.
All of this has rattled bettors, for sure. There’s not a lot of confidence when the Jays are forced to start Louis Varland tonight, after he pitched an inning last night, gave up the Judge home run in the fourth, then a laser beam homer to right field by Jazz Chisholm Jr., that salted the Yankees’ 9-6 win.
Last night reminded me of two years ago – Jays versus the Twins in Game 2 of a wildcard series in Minnesota, Berrios dominating through three innings on 47 pitches, only to get suddenly pulled by manager John Schneider, to the puzzlement of all who watched. Schneider was seemingly sticking to some analytics department strategy rather than a gut feel off of how Berrios was dominating the Twins. It was a horrible move. Jays would lose the game 2-0, and the series, setting off torrents of criticism, plus comments by Berrios on how confused he was with the move.
Risky Business
“It’s a bit of a scratching head decision going with Varland to start and a bullpen game, you must assume Schneider is giving him the chance to redeem Game 3’s performance. It’s a risky move and I am not quite sure bettors agree,” said Phill Gray, the former Head of Trading Operations at Sports Interaction.
“Yankee bats rank higher than the Jays in every category, so that Over 8.5 -108 might be a great wager tonight. Can the Jays get to rookie Cam Schlittler to offset their pitching woes? He was awfully dominant in the Wildcard game [against the Red Sox last week] and could go deep in innings pitched staying away from the Yankees own bullpen issues.
“Toronto is a hefty +143 to win straight up right now, that could get higher close to first pitch as certainly NY should continue to take money straight up and the runline as well which is seen as the real value – NYY -1.5 +118.”
How Do Betting Odds Look for Game 4?
Gray said this is the consensus among bettors so far that he is seeing: 79% of bets and 58% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the spread, 52% of bets and 78% of the money on the Moneyline is on the Yankees to win straight up.
A quick scan around: With rookie Schlittler starting tonight, at ESPN BET, the Yankees are -180 on the Moneyline, the Jays +150. The O/U 8.5 is -110, with the Spread at Jays +1.5 (-145) and the Yankees -1.5 (+120) – 56.3% of bets and 65.8% of handle are on Yankees ML -180, 82.7% of bets and 91.6% of handle are on Over 8.5.
Most bet player props at DraftKings include Judge Hits 1+, Judge Total Bases 2+, and Schlittler Strikeouts Thrown O/U Under 5.5.
Meanwhile, the Mariners are in Detroit, up 2-1 in their series with the Tigers, and go today at 3:08 p.m. EST (Mariners -108, Tigers -108, at FanDuel), the Cubs, down 2-0 to the Brewers, play at home at 5:08 p.m. (Brewers -108, Tigers -112 at DraftKings), and the Phillies look to stave off elimination, down 2-0, are in Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers at 9:08 p.m. EST (Dodgers -186, Phillies +151 at DraftKings). First pitch for Jays-Yankees is 7:08 p.m. EST.
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