- The Toronto Blue Jays are -130 ML betting favorites ahead of ALCS Game 7 on Monday night
- Money so far is on the Blue Jays
- Mariners’ starter George Kirby struggled in Game 3
The Toronto Blue Jays are solid betting favorites for Game 7 of the American League Championship Series Monday night against the Seattle Mariners, as of this morning’s betting lines.
The Blue Jays are getting hammered on the action side – both the ticket count and money side are leaning hard their way. At BetMGM (data covering legal US online betting states and Ontario) Monday morning’s moneyline has the Jays -130 and the Mariners +110, with 62% of bets and 85% of handle coming in on Toronto. The O/U is 7.5, with 69% of bets and 85% of handle on the Over, which isn’t surprising considering the high number of home runs hit in the series.
The current Spread is Toronto -1.5 (generating a whopping 86% of bets and 97% of handle, at +155), the Mariners +1.5 (-185).
Shane Bieber starts for Toronto in Game 7. Bieber impressed in Seattle in Game 3, going six innings, giving up just four hits and two runs, with eight strikeouts, in a 13-4 Jays win. That win switched the series momentum in the Blue Jays’ favor after Seattle dominated the first two games in Toronto, running up a 2-0 series lead.
Kirby Struggled Last Time Out
George Kirby goes tonight for Seattle. He was roughed up for eight hits and eight runs over just four innings in Game 3.
Both pitchers, given the stakes of a Game 7, will be on a short leash,” said Phill Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction, and an industry sports betting consultant. “Kirby was lit up in Game 3. I’d expect to see heavy action on him.”
Gray added that, “personally, even given the Jays’ offensive potential and home field advantage, Seattle has the better bullpen and I’d rank Bieber and Kirby as dead even starters, so +110 Seattle seems inflated to me.”
Jays Win Would Be Big for US Sportsbooks
“I have talked about it many times but I’d expect a massive run on the Jays tonight at Ontario sportsbooks, in the neighborhood of 80-90% tickets and likely 60-70% of money,” Gray added. “Reversed at US books for the most part, [the] Jays would be a big win for them.”
For Canadians, Monday night’s game reminds us of Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals, when the Kawhi Leonard-led Raptors won the championship over the Golden State Warriors. That series swept up the nation.
You get the same feeling about Game 7. These are the highest stakes one could imagine. Plans are being rearranged across the country so people can tune in (side note, Monday night beer league hockey got cancelled tonight after the arena people called to say the employees won’t be showing up for work).
A win tonight and the victor moves on to the World Series to take on Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers, starting Friday. If the Blue Jays win, the World Series will kick off at the Rogers Centre in Toronto.
Springer’s Health a Question Mark
The last time the Blue Jays were in the World Series was 1993, when they beat the Phillies. The Mariners have never been to the World Series, and they’ve been in the league as long as the Blue Jays (since 1977).
Another storyline that bears watching is the health of George Springer, who’s laboring after taking a 96 mph fastball off his knee cap in Game 5.
Springer clearly struggled in Sunday night’s Game 6, which was won by the Blue Jays 6-2. It appeared he couldn’t put much weight on his injured leg, hampering his power. Springer has arguably been the Blue Jay’s MVP this season.
Last night, post game, Springer said he would be in for Game 7.
Bullpen Advantage: Mariners
Vlad Guerrero Jr. continues to dominate at the plate. Guerrerro has six home runs over 10 games so far this post season, which represents a quarter of his entire regular season-long production.
Still, the Mariners have the superior bullpen. If Bieber goes down early, and the Jays are forced to dip into their bullpen anywhere in the fourth to seventh innings, that’s where the Mariners could gain an advantage.
Toronto was crushed by baseball commentators and fans nationwide for putting in beleaguered reliever Brendon Little in the 8th inning of Game 5 in Seattle with the Jays up 2-1 and the momentum at their backs, Jays manager John Schneider put their top closer Jeff Hoffman in for both the eight and ninth innings on Sunday night.
“Game 7 should be great. It’s still early, but the money so far is on the Blue Jays, as it was last night in Game 6. The Blue Jays beat up on George Kirby in Game 3, so I foresee a bunch of parlays combining guys like Vlad Guerrero Jr. and George Springer to go deep in what could be a high scoring game,” said Eric Biggio, the lead baseball oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook.
“While we’ll probably need the Mariners in tonight’s game, we definitely need the Blue Jays for our futures positions, so the Jays winning tonight would be a good outcome for the book regardless.”
At BetRivers the ML is Blue Jays -132, Mariners +112, and at DraftKings it’s Jays -132, Mariners +108.
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