The level of how smitten casual bettors are with individual NFL teams fluctuates over the course of a season, as narratives play out, as favourites and underdogs rise and fall.
This morning’s peak at ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index is a case in point, after Week 10’s games.
Last week the Buffalo Bills, after a big Week 9 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, were No. 1 in projected wins at 11.9, followed by the Indianapolis Colts at 11.6.
The Bills though absolutely crapped the bed yesterday in the rain in Miami, against the now 3-7 Dolphins, losing 30-13, and now sit a full two games back of the New England Patriots in the AFC East. Plus, the Patriots own the tie breaker between the two teams, as of today, after their upset 23-20 win over the Bills in Week 5.
Bills Slip in Super Bowl Odds
The Index now projects 11.0 wins for the Bills, and they’re looking up at the Rams (12.1), Patriots (11.9), Colts (11.9), Denver Broncos (11.6), Seattle Seahawks (11.5) and the Philadelphia Eagles (11.3).
Folks who bet on the Bills to win the Super Bowl are no doubt looking at early cash out options. Buffalo was awful yesterday – they turned the ball over three times, including a Josh Allen interception in the end zone when the Bills had the ball on the Miami five-yard line, late in the third quarter, down 16-0. That was a backbreaker. Allen would also fumble on a botched tush push play.
Have the Bills lost their Super Bowl window? Because the Patriots are back, beating the Bucs yesterday 28-23, to go to 8-2. And the Bills’ run defence is really bad. Those teams meet one more time, in Foxborough, Dec. 14. The Patriots also hve two more games against the lowly Jets, and one against the 2-8 Giants.
Ravens Looking Far More Attractive with Jackson Back in Lineup
How did the sportsbooks see it, yesterday?
“The Berlin game between the Falcons and the Colts definitely had some drama,” said Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook. “Opening at -5.5 and closing at -6.5 created a tight window where line shoppers could have landed on either side of the result.
“With the Colts clearly the better team but failing to capitalize on multiple fourth-down opportunities, anyone backing Indy at -6.5 must’ve felt the sting of missed chances. That kind of game really highlights how crucial timing is in betting and how frustrating it can be when the right side doesn’t cash.
Best Games for Bettors?
“As for the early slate, the Ravens are becoming a public darling with Lamar back in form. Their momentum is palpable, and it’s no surprise that they were a big win for customers. The Texans’ comeback win was one of those classic “bad beat” moments for the book. A defensive walk-off that flips the spread is always a gut punch, especially when it swings both pre-game and in-play markets.”
Good games for the book yesterday were in the AFC East, other than the Bills. The Dolphins, Jets and Patriots wins were the winners for the book in the early games against very popular selections.
What were the best games for bettors?
Giants Fire Daboll
“The Texans’ walk-off defensive score was one of those rare, high-impact moments that flips the script entirely,” said Feazel. “What looked like a solid book result turned into a big swing for the public, and was especially painful when it hit both pre-game and in-play markets.”
News headlines today are led by head Brian Daboll getting fired by the Giants. The Giants have a QB of the future in Jaxson Dart, but he suffered a concussion yesterday, the Giants fell to the Bears 24-20, and they’re now 2-8 (including 0-6 away).
Some wild Super Bowl odds swings as a result of yesterday’s games, led by the Bills going from +590 +850, the Seahawks going from +1100 to +900, the Ravens going from +1900 to +1400, and the Patriots going from +2500 to +1500, at Caesars Sportsbook.
Tonight’s Monday Night Football game is a doozy, with the Packers hosting the Eagles. The Packers are ML favourites at -118, over the Eagles -102 (Eagles’ line getting 81% of bets and 60% of handle at BetMGM). The Packers are coming off an upset 16-13 loss to the underdog Panthers in Week 9.
The post Huge Swings in Super Bowl Odds After NFL Week 10 appeared first on Casino.org.
