UFC 310 Paths to Victory: How can Kai Asakura beat Alexandre Pantoja and win the title in his UFC debut?

On Saturday, Alexandre Pantoja makes the third defense of his UFC flyweight title when he takes on the debuting Kai Asakura at UFC 310 in Las Vegas. Pantoja is quietly building a resume as one of the most dominant champions in the UFC, and a win over the highly-regarded Asakura could help him continue to rise in the pound-for-pound rankings. Meanwhile, Asakura has the opportunity to go from a highly-touted fighter to the best in the world in one fell swoop.

How can each man walk away Saturday as the champion and what are the most important parts of this main event? Let’s dive in.

Photo by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Paths to Victory for Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 310

Currently only No. 11 in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings, Pantoja already has a claim to being the second-greatest flyweight of all time. And when you’re behind Demetrious Johnson, second-best ain’t half bad.

Pantoja built his resume on the back of two key attributes: he’s tough as nails, and he’s an elite grappler. Let’s start with the durability because that’s the straw that stirs the drink for the flyweight champion.

In 33 professional fights, Pantoja has never been finished. The man has nine wins over currently ranked fighters, beating the likes of Brandon Moreno, Brandon Royval, Manel Kape, and Steve Erceg, and not only has he never been stopped, he’s only been dropped once! Considering Pantoja can be very reckless on the feet, that’s pretty remarkable and a testament to just the sort of heart and mettle the man is made of.

Now, on to the grappling. At this point, it seems fairly definitive that Pantoja has the best grappling in the flyweight division. Though Pantoja is a willing striker, his current title run has primarily come on the back of his ability to secure takedowns and retain dominant position on the mat. Even against great scramblers, Pantoja is equal to their ability, consolidating position and taking over the fight. Both Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval played hell getting out from under Pantoja or getting ahead of him in neutral positions.

And against Asakura, that’s all Pantoja needs to do. Asakura is a fun and dangerous fighter, but just a few years ago, Hiromasa Ougikubo was able to take a unanimous decision win by getting to top position and holding it. Heck, even last year, Juan Archuleta had plenty of success against Asakura before a knee crumbled him.

For Pantoja, the game plan is simple: score takedowns, hold position, and don’t get too carried away in the striking. Basically, the Deiveson Figueiredo game plan, only actually pull it off.

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Paths to victory for Kai Asakura at UFC 310

Currently unranked in both the UFC rankings and the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, Asakura is nevertheless an extremely talented fighter. The issue for Asakura has been inconsistency, both in his performances and in the weight classes he competes in. But he doesn’t need to be consistent to beat Pantoja; he just needs one moment of brilliance.

While Pantoja is all grappling and heart, Asakura is pure dynamism. In the build-up to this fight, Asakura made a big deal of his knockout power and finishing ability, and with good reason. In 21 professional wins, 16 have come by finish, 12 in the first round. And we’re not talking about crushing cans here; Asakura has wins over Manel Kape, Kyoji Horiguchi, and Ulka Sasaki. Asakura is a legitimate threat to finish a fight at any point in time, even if he’s behind on the cards, which makes him a very dangerous opponent. And for Asakura, that’s the trump card he brings to the cage.

Pantoja is a great fighter, but he’s not a huge finisher, especially since winning the title. He’s more concerned about winning rounds and winning the fight than he is finishing, which opens up opportunities for Asakura. In all likelihood, even if Pantoja is winning, Asakura still has 25 minutes to find one big shot and turn the tide. Granted, that’s still a tough ask against someone as durable as Pantoja, but ask any gambler, the odds of winning a hand go up the longer you play.

So, for Asakura, the focus has to be on staying upright and seizing the moment. Pantoja is reckless on the feet and will eventually give up opportunities to club him. Asakura needs to take advantage of the opportunities and create as many of them as possible by not over-committing to shots and getting countered with wrestling.

One Big Question

The outcome of most high-level fights depends on dozens of different things, but frankly, it’s a lot to list all of those out. Instead, let’s simplify things by determining the One Big Thing that will determine Saturday’s winner.

Can Asakura still compete at 125 pounds?

My single biggest question for this fight is how does Asakura look back at flyweight? Sure, he used to compete in the weight class, but the Japanese star hasn’t fought at 125 pounds since 2017. Seven years is a long time, especially when you consider he was 24 years old when he did. The man has grown up since then, and frankly, he’s a big boy. If he even can make the weight, how will he look cutting that much? Can his gas tank hold up?

I don’t know the answer to those questions, but we’re about to find out.

One Small Question

Now we know the single most important factor of Saturday’s main event. But while there are Big Questions that may determine fights, there are also Little Questions that can play a big role. What’s the biggest Little Question for Saturday?

Are “octagon jitters” real?

In general, probably not. Historically, we’ve heard several debuting fighters say that the UFC was so different from their previous experiences — so much bigger — that they had a huge adrenaline dump and floundered. Asakura’s been fighting on big shows for years, so that part is unlikely, but another aspect could be legit.

On top of being his first fight at flyweight in seven years, Asakura is also competing in a cage for the first time since his last flyweight fight. For the past seven years, Asakura’s been fighting in RIZIN, which means fighting in a ring. That’s very different from the cage, especially when it comes to the wrestling part of things.

Yes, Asakura is a professional, and I expect him to have prepared accordingly, but there’s a difference between practice and live reps, and Asakura is woefully far behind in experience in this regard.

Prediction

Ultimately, this fight comes down to Asakura’s ability to hurt Pantoja. I’ve said it often, but being unkillable is a huge cheat code in MMA, and Pantoja was blessed with that ability. Asakura, meanwhile, was not. On top of that, even if Pantoja can’t kill him, Asakura has not proven to be a good enough defensive wrestler or grappler to believe he’ll be able to fend off Pantoja on the floor.

Given how dynamic he is, I certainly wouldn’t be stunned by an Asakura win, but it just seems unlikely.

Alexandre Pantoja def. Kai Asakura by unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)

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