Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s 2:30 PM ET press conference is where Bitcoin traders will get answers on the Fed’s 2025 easing path. Markets already know the December decision; the real question is whether Powell signals two or four more cuts next year.
Bitcoin is holding $92,000 heading into the presser, with traders watching for any hawkish language about “patience” or “data-dependent” policy that could dampen aggressive easing expectations.
The updated dot plot, released at 2pm, will show where Fed officials see rates ending in 2025, but Powell’s tone and forward guidance will determine whether crypto interprets today’s likely 25-basis-point cut as dovish or hawkish.
The key risk for Bitcoin is a “hawkish cut” scenario where Powell emphasizes labor market strength (191K jobless claims, 7.7M job openings) as justification for slowing the pace of easing despite improving core inflation (2.8%).
Any mention of skipping the January meeting or reducing 2025 cuts from four to two would be bearish for risk assets.
Conversely, if Powell stresses that inflation is moving toward the target and the Fed remains committed to normalizing rates, Bitcoin could break above $92,000 resistance.
Bitcoin’s technical setup shows resistance at $92,000 and support at $88,000-$90,000, with the descending trendline since mid-November still intact.
Traders will parse every word from Powell for clues on the January 28-29 FOMC meeting and the overall 2025 trajectory.
The Fed’s credibility is on the line after ending QT and cutting rates twice—backing away from easing now would signal either policy error or genuine concern about sticky inflation.
Powell speaks at 2:30 pm ET, and crypto volatility is expected to spike immediately after.
Powell Press Conference: 2025 Guidance is the Real Story
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