Neil Magny is the living embodiment of the “Ah shit here we go again” meme at this point, right?
The UFC’s career leader in welterweight wins (22) makes his 34th walk to the octagon to headline UFC Vegas 100, and as has so often been the case throughout his time with the promotion, he is a massive underdog. Looking to make his name off Magny this Saturday is Carlos Prates, a dangerous knockout artist that can put an exclamation point on his Rookie of the Year campaign if he takes out one of the division’s hardiest competitors.
It’s a fine fight to cap off a card wracked by cancellations and also burdened with slightly higher than usual expectations due to this officially being the UFC APEX’s centennial show (for whatever that’s worth). Just keep in mind the real number that matters is that this is the UFC’s 37th show of 2024, so the lineup was built with that in mind, not with celebrating an arbitrary landmark.
With that said, also on the main card, former two-division ONE Championship titleholder Reinier de Ridder makes his UFC debut against Gerald Meerschaert, Gaston Bolanos welcomes Contender Series signing Cortavious Romious to the roster, Luana Pinheiro and Gillian Robertson jockey for position in the strawweight top-15, and Mansur Abdul-Malik looks to put on a showcase performance against Dusko Todorovic.
What: UFC Vegas 100
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Nov. 9. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
Not to turn this into a No Bets Barred supplemental (never, ever use my picks for gambling purposes, trust me), but one can’t discuss Neil Magny’s recent competitive history without telling the odds. Magny has played spoiler on multiple occasions, including this past January when he won as a 3-to-1 underdog to Mike Malott at UFC 298, but his board has also seen plenty of chalk. Michael Morales, Ian Machado Garry, Gilbert Burns, and Shavkat Rakhmonov were all heavy favorites to defeat Magny and they did.
Carlos Prates’ chances of victory are right up there with those greats as he’s at least a 6-to-1 favorite depending where you get your lines. It’s not surprising, given he’s been a wrecking ball in 2024, finishing all three of his UFC opponents to extend his overall win streak to 10. At 31, Prates doesn’t look like a prospect, he looks like a fighter who could be challenging for UFC gold in 2025.
If you’re curious how Prates fares in five-round fights, the answer is there’s no data for that because he’s never had to fight past Round 3. That fact alone should be enough to give one pause as far as breaking the bank to wager on Prates, as Magny has shown he can shrug off slow starts and outlast his opponents in high-stakes fights. Prates should end this one early. If he doesn’t, don’t be surprised to see Magny rally and turn the tables on Prates in rounds 3, 4, and 5.
In Prates’ favor is that he’s proven to be excellent at conserving his energy. Magny will definitely want to push the pace to test Prates’ cardio, but Prates is not a tactless berserker. His Muay Thai is patient and precise, making it a risky proposition to attempt to walk him down.
Normally when I pick against Magny, it’s due to his suspect submission defense. This time, it’s the deficit in striking that will prove to be his doom. He’s always been solid, but Prates is spectacular, and I’m picking spectacular to win out on this day.
Prates by knockout.
Pick: Prates
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Reinier de Ridder
This fight should be a grappler’s delight and if that’s the case, it’s kind of a toss-up.
Reinier de Ridder was a star in ONE Championship and beat some good names over there, though I’m hesitant to put his quality of competition over the UFC wins Gerald Meerschaert has faced. Are Aung La N Sang and Vitaly Bigdash leagues better than Bruno Silva and Makhmud Muradov? I’m not sure, but in a way, this was the perfect way for UFC to gauge what they have with their new signing.
Meerschaert has typically fallen short against top-20 opposition, so if de Ridder is the real deal, we’ll find out soon enough. “The Dutch Knight” has only lost to Anatoly Malykhin, a hulking beast of a fighter carving out his own legacy in ONE, and he’s as dangerous on the ground as Meerschaert is. Hold for hold, de Ridder might even have the edge on Meerschaert, who trails only Jim Miller and Charles Oliveira for the most submission wins in UFC history.
I feel confident picking de Ridder to make Meerschaert tap because I do place him in that range of fighters that have typically foiled “GM3.” Whether he’s truly an elite 185er remains to be seen, but his debut should go fine.
Pick: De Ridder
Gaston Bolanos vs. Cortavious Romious
All things considered, it’s not the worst thing that Gaston Bolanos and Cortavious Romious ended up with a main card spot.
No, this wasn’t what the UFC planned, but they’re rolling with the punches here and rolling the dice on a potential bantamweight thriller. The 135-pound division is the gift that keeps on giving, so you can’t go wrong keeping the spotlight on it.
This is somewhat of a striker vs. grappler matchup and while I favor Romious for his potential to mix in wrestling, that doesn’t mean it will necessarily become a boring grind. Romious brings impressive physicality and an offensive mindset to the octagon, which should bring the best out of Bolanos. “The Dreamkiller” will undoubtedly be hunting for a knockout from the moment the bell rings, so seeing if Romious can defuse his potent striking should make for compelling viewing.
I have Romious scoring key takedowns and racking up the points with ground-and-pound, wearing Bolanos down en route to a dominant third round and a convincing win on the scorecards.
Pick: Romious
Luana Pinheiro (15) vs. Gillian Robertson (14)
Has Luana Pinheiro hit a wall? After a promising 3-0 start to her UFC career, the Brazilian strawweight went up a couple of notches in competition and stumbled against Amanda Ribas and Angela Hill. She’s still showing limitations in the striking department, which proved to be her undoing in her past two outings. When the standup doesn’t go her way, she reverts to her grappling, and the results can be uneven.
She has a willing jiu-jitsu partner in Gillian Robertson. “The Savage” is always looking to fight on the ground and the Pinheiro pairing could result in some entertaining scrambles and a few hairy submission situations for both fighters. I can’t lie, I’m enamored with Robertson’s aggression, so I have to lean in her direction. No Canadian bias, I swear!
Pinheiro has the talent and motivation to right the ship, but Robertson’s offense will be too much in the end.
Robertson by ground-and-pound TKO.
Pick: Robertson
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dusko Todorovic
Let’s be clear, Dusko Todorovic’s considerable experience advantage should be a factor here. Unfortunately for Todorovic, a lot of his UFC experience has featured him losing in painful ways. Fresh off a knee injury that sidelined him for over 600 days, Todorovic could look like a new man on Saturday. Or it could be more of the same.
If the buzz around Mansur Abdul-Malik tells us anything, it’s that the matchmakers will probably be more than happy to see a new name shine in the main card opener. There’s nothing fancy about Abdul-Malik’s approach, which makes sense given he’s only been competing for a little over three years and enters his seventh pro bout. He’ll come out throwing heavy punches and head kicks, determined to earn a bonus in his first UFC fight.
Truthfully, this has upset special written all over it. Let’s not forget Todorovic was once the promising prospect that received a rude awakening when that UFC call came, so maybe it’s his turn to deliver a reality check?
Nah, Abdul-Malik is going to knock him out.
Pick: Abdul-Malik
Preliminaries
Denise Gomes def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Elizeu Zaleski def. Zach Scroggin
Charlie Radtke def. Matthew Semelsberger
Da’Mon Blackshear def. Cody Stamann
Antonio Trocoli def. Tresean Gore
Melissa Mullins def. Klaudia Sygula
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